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Customer Logins2011 – a big year in U.S. automotive?
So we are one month into the New Year, the North American International Auto Show is behind us and everyone has put their stake in the ground. From what I have seen, the expectation is a market of around 12.5 million units this year - certainly better than the last few but nowhere near the 16 million mark of a few years ago. What's your guess? (Because let's be honest - that's what they all are!)
What are the big things that could impact this year? Let's start with the obvious - the economy and the price of gas. A bad spike in either and that 12.5 million could turn into a pipe-dream quickly. On the plus side, consumer optimism appears to be on the rise, credit is more available and leasing has made a big comeback. If those trends continue I think we'll see the 'forecasts' continue to increase as the year goes on.
There are also some interesting things coming from the vehicle side. Lots of new hybrids and electric vehicles, some nice new small cars and a new brand or two. Each on its own is unlikely to move the needle much but all together there will be some impact and they will be a good indicator of things to come. Some of the long-range forecasts I have seen have the market back up to 16 million within 4 years, who knows how that market will be made up?
It has been an interesting couple of years to be involved in this industry; hopefully, the next couple can be just as interesting but for more positive reasons.
Posted by Chris Royle, Director, Strategy and Planning, Polk (02.02.2011)