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Customer LoginsEU CV registrations make 13.2% y/y gain during November – ACEA
Commercial vehicle registrations in the European Union have risen 13.2% y/y during November.
- Significance: Commercial vehicle registrations in the European Union have risen 13.2% y/y during November, which has supported the double-digit percentage growth momentum in the YTD.
- Implications: The situation for the commercial vehicle market in Europe has noticeably improved from last month.
- Outlook: In line with the growth that has been seen in both categories, we anticipate that they will hang to much of it during the final month of the year. However, we anticipate that while the LCV category will rise modestly again during 2017, MHCV registrations are expected to fall back.
Commercial vehicle (CV) registrations in Europe rebounded during November after sliding in October, according to the latest data published by European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). The number of light commercial vehicles (LCVs), medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs), and medium and heavy buses and coaches registered during this month in the European Union (EU) increased by 13.2% year on year (y/y) to 203,799 units. This has helped maintain momentum in the year to date (YTD), and now for the first 11 months registrations of CVs in the EU have grown by 11.7% y/y to 2,112,128 units.
The situation was also more positive in the European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) markets, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Here registrations in November have grown by 4.0% y/y to 6,938 units. This has helped registrations in the YTD now reach 71,557 units, an increase of 4.2% y/y.
Considering the automaker's solid product pipeline, we forecast Renault India's sales volumes to grow steadily from nearly 122,900 units this year to 270,600 units in 2019.
As ever, the market for LCVs - CVs with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of less than 3.5 tonnes - is significantly influential on the overall CV market due to it making up around 80% of overall registrations. During November, demand for these types of vehicles increased by 13.5% y/y, with registrations hitting 168,667 units. While modest growth has been recorded in the UK and Germany during November, far bigger gains have been seen in the other three large markets. Although in Spain, which is still in a recovery phase, LCV registrations are up 11.9% y/y, the largest market for this type of vehicle recorded a strong 35,692-unit increase. However, the Italian LCV market surged by 66.0% y/y, which has been mainly down to the benefit from temporary measures approved by the Italian parliament within the 2016 budget, under which Italian companies, as well as individually owned businesses, are allowed higher depreciation rates on new vehicles bought and registered until 31 December 2016, within the existing deductibility limits. Furthermore, this is also being supported by incentives offered by a range of OEMs, and in particular local champion Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA).
Elsewhere in the EU, performances were mixed, but the general trend seems to be one of upward movement this month, although some of this support comes with the benefit of additional working days in some cases.
Overall, in the year to date (YTD), LCV registrations have now grown by 12.1% y/y to 1,741,498 units.
The smaller selling MHCV category also had a positive month during November. The number of trucks with a GVW of more than 3.5 tonnes registered in the EU has grown by 12.8% y/y to 31,555 units. This has helped maintain its growth rate in the YTD which now stands at 10.9% y/y, a gain of 334,460 units. The heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) category with a GVW of over 16 tonnes which increased by 12.1% y/y to 25,156 units, while its registrations in the first 11 months reached 267,987 units, an increase of 11.9% y/y. On a market basis, leading market Germany recorded a modest 1.2% y/y increase, although far stronger performances were put in by other large markets like UK, France, Spain and Poland. However, Italy was also a standout performer with its registrations more than doubling, for reasons similar to those that have driven the country's LCV market.
Outlook and implications
The situation for the CV market in Europe has improved. During October, seasonal factors came into play with many markets being hit by up to two fewer working days in some cases. This brought to an end a 37-month run of gains for the LCV category, although there is still room for improvement. It remains to be seen whether this will be another long-running trend or more intermittent, particularly in light of the pressures that are likely to become more important during 2017.
It has been a very successful year for the MHCV category, says Ewa Root, Manager of the Global Truck Sales Service, with the YTD gains that have been recorded being in-line with our current forecast. She adds that the projected turmoil that was expected to be faced by some markets in the region following the Brexit vote did not materialise, although she notes, "During the second half of this year demand for trucks has begun to slow down in some countries, including the largest markets in Europe, Germany and the UK." However, the majority of other countries, including France, Spain, Sweden and most of Central Europe, have registered double-digit percentage growth in truck sales.
Nonetheless, Root notes, "We have considerable concerns over growth prospects for 2017. The latest economic data confirms weakening of the GDP growth in Central Europe, amid plunge in fixed investment. Although manufacturing still surprises on the upside, export orders are beginning to contract. Meanwhile, the Eurozone growth will be hampered by political uncertainty as well as Brexit negotiations, which are expected to bring heighten business and consumer caution in the region." As a result, our assumptions for 2017 remain unchanged, with IHS Automotive still expecting a decline in the European truck demand compared to 2016.
As for LCV registrations, IHS Automotive anticipates that vehicles with a GVW of up to 6 tonnes will maintain much of the growth that has been built up so far during 2016. However, although we do see gains continuing during 2017, this will be at a far weaker rate.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.