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Customer LoginsJapan's new vehicle export volume to reach over 4.33 mil. vehicles during 2016 – IHS data
Vehicle exports from Japan are expected to witness a 1.4% y/y increase during 2016, mainly helped by 8.4% y/y growth in SUV shipments to countries such as the United States, Australia and China.
IHS Markit Perspective
- Significance: Japanese vehicle exports are expected to reach over 4.33 million vehicles during 2016, reflecting an increase of 1.4% y/y.
- Implications: We forecast North America will remain the largest export destination during 2016 with volumes reaching over 1.81 million units (up 5% y/y) and followed by Europe (749,011 units, up 9.9% y/y) at the top two slots. By segment, sports utility vehicles (SUVs) will account for the largest share of the total exported vehicles during the year. Over 2.62 million SUVs will be exported, accounting for 60.6% of the total exported units.
- Outlook: Japan's vehicle exports grew 2.5% y/y in 2015 to over 4.27 million vehicles after witnessing declines in the previous two years. We expect this growth to moderate during 2016 and 2017 to over 4.33 million units (up 1.4% y/y) and over 4.34 million units (up 0.3% y/y), respectively. The growth during 2015 mainly benefitted from a weaker yen that helped to support exports from Japan. Furthermore, factors such as strong demand for SUVs, in particular, small-mid size SUV models such as the Toyota RAV4, 4Runner (Hilux Surf), Lexus NX, Nissan X-Trail/Rogue, Subaru Forester, XV, and Mazda CX-5, will help to keep this momentum going.
Japan exported a total of 2,929,772 vehicles in the first eight months of the year, marking a 0.5% year on year (y/y) increase, according to figures released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association (JAMA). Of the total exports, shipments to North America, the biggest destination for Japanese-made vehicles, grew 4.4% y/y to 1.17 million vehicles. This was followed by Europe, to which exports grew 12.8% y/y to 512,131 units in August. Shipments to Asia were up 11.1% y/y (371,889 units) during the year-to-date (YTD) period, and it was followed by the Middle East with 321,561 units (down 24.4% y/y). Deliveries increased to Oceania (by 3.7% y/y to 262,812 units) and Central America (by 8.1% y/y to 113,153 units), while they decreased to Africa (by 17.6% y/y to 95,720 units) and South America (by 25.7% y/y to 71,369 units). Other regions' exports reached 4,352 units, down 18.4% y/y during the period.
For the full-year 2016, Japanese vehicle exports are expected to reach over 4.33 million vehicles, reflecting an increase of 1.4% y/y, according to IHS Automotive data. By segment, sports utility vehicles (SUVs) will account for the largest share of the total vehicles exported during the year. Over 2.62 million SUVs will be exported during the year, accounting for 60.6% of the total vehicle exports. This figure also represents a 8.4% y/y growth, primarily fuelled by growing demand for SUVs in markets including the United States, Australia, and China. It will be followed by passenger cars, accounting for 28.5% share, to over 1.23 million units. Shipments of passenger cars will be down 7.5% y/y during the year. Vans will take the third slot, with 263,138 units (down 5.9% y/y) and 6.1% share. It will be followed by sports, multipurpose vehicles (MPVs), and pickups (PUP) with 103,936 units (up 5.9% y/y; 2.4% share), 102,600 units (down 24.7% y/y; 2.4% share), and 2,333 units (down 22.1% y/y; 0.1% share), respectively.
We forecast North America will remain the largest export destination for Japanese vehicles over the full-year period with volumes reaching over 1.81 million units (up 5% y/y) and followed by Europe (749,011 units, up 9.9% y/y) at the top two slots. Shipments to the South Asia region will reach 439,759 units and the Middle East and Africa will reach 406,808 units, although these figures represent a decline of 1.9% y/y and 8.6% y/y, respectively. This was followed by South Asia (including South Korea) where deliveries would reach close to 328,073 units, down 1.9% y/y. We also forecast exports of 510,445 units for 'other' regions.
Outlook and implications
Japan's vehicle exports grew 2.5% y/y in 2015 to over 4.27 million vehicles after witnessing declines in the previous two years. This growth is expected to be moderated during 2016 and 2017 to over 4.33 million units (up 1.4% y/y) and over 4.34 million units (up 0.3% y/y), respectively. The growth during 2015 was mainly helped by a weaker yen that helped to support exports from Japan, of models such as the Nissan Rogue and Honda Fit, according to Satomi Hamada, IHS Automotive senior forecasting analyst. In addition, thanks to the continued strong demand, especially in the US as a result of the sharp decline in crude oil prices, many Japanese OEMs' plant utilisation is staying around 100%. This will help the export volumes to continue growth with models such as the Toyota RAV4 and Nissan Rogue from Japan.
Last year, the export volume from Japan accounted for nearly 48.7% of the total production volume (over 8.77 million units) in the country, underscoring the huge role it plays for the Japanese vehicle market. This figure is expected to reach 50% during 2016 and 49.5% in 2017. Strong demand for SUVs as well as adding some export variants such as the North American-market Honda Fit helped the export volumes, added Hamada. In particular, currently small-mid size SUV models are maintaining strong momentum such as the Toyota RAV4, 4Runner (Hilux Surf), Lexus NX, Nissan X-Trail/Rogue, Subaru Forester, XV, and Mazda CX-5, and will keep the momentum going.
For 2016, Japanese light vehicle production volume is expected to reach over 8.67 million units (down 1.1% y/y). IHS Automotive has trimmed the 2016 forecast for Japan following the government's decision to defer the scheduled increase in value-added tax (VAT), which was expected to keep domestic sales firm this year. The tax increase from 8% to 10% was originally planned for October 2015 but now has been rescheduled to April 2017 due to the poor state of the economy.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.