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Customer LoginsMercedes-Benz passenger car brand leads BMW and Audi after Q1
Mercedes-Benz leads BMW and Audi in the first quarter of the year, but IHS forecasts it will just miss out on taking the premium sales crown for the full year.
IHS Automotive Perspective
- Significance: Audi and BMW have joined Mercedes-Benz in posting their sales results for the first quarter with Audi posting sales of 455,750 units, placing the company in third position behind the BMW passenger car brand which posted sales of 478,743 units, and Mercedes-Benz emerging as the new leader with sales of 483,487 units.
- Implications: The first-quarter German premium brand sales results confirm the renaissance that the Mercedes-Benz brand is currently enjoying. While the race is still extremely tight, the Mercedes-Benz brand is forecast to remain behind BMW for the full year by a few hundred units, according to our latest IHS sales forecast.
- Outlook: Mercedes-Benz's current advantage is largely down to the comparative weakness of BMW in terms of certain key ranges' model cycles. This will change over the next few years and IHS Automotive expects BMW to regain the top spot when key new models like the new 5-Series come on line in the next few years.
Audi has joined BMW in announcing first-quarter sales with a figure of 455,750 units, which was a rise of 4% year on year (y/y), according to a company statement. For March, Audi registered sales of 186,100 units. BMW brand sales came in at 478,743 units for the first quarter, which was an increase of 6.0% y/y, while March sales came in at 201,392 units, which was a rise of 2.9% y/y. The news of Audi's and BMW's sales confirmed that Mercedes-Benz was the biggest selling premium passenger car brand in the first quarter of 2016, posting first-quarter sales of 483,487 units, which equated to a rise of 13% y/y.
Taking a more comprehensive look at Audi's sales, it is clear that the company is failing to match Mercedes-Benz's growth at this point for a number of factors. As the leading premium brand in China, sales are already at a high base level. This is limiting current growth and there is also evidence that Audi has been hit hardest by the tougher regulations on the procurement of cars for government officials, with many officials favouring the long-wheelbase variants of the A4 and the A6 in particular. In addition the purchases of government cars also seem to have an influence on the purchasing decisions of private buyers, so if there are fewer government Audis on the roads and other brands are being purchased, this has the tendency to have an effect on the wider market. As such, sales in China in the first quarter still grew at a healthy figure of 4.7% y/y to 139,540 units. Sales in March grew at the slightly quicker rate of 5.4% y/y to 50,986 units. However, this compares to 26.6% y/y increase in March for Mercedes-Benz to 38,133 units, with an first-quarter uplift of 36.4% y/y to 106,641 units, while the BMW Group's sales in China also rose at the slower rate of 10.5% y/y in the first quarter to 127,015 units.
In terms of other regional markets, Audi's sales in Europe rose 7.3% y/y to 222,350 units for the first quarter, with an identical uplift posted in March to 97,300 units. In the company's home market of Germany sales rose by 11% y/y in the first quarter to 81,263 units, while the increase in March was 10.8% y/y to 30,923 units. Audi's sales in the US rose by 4.6% y/y in the first quarter to 41,960 units, which illustrated the limited impact on consumer reaction that the Volkswagen (VW) emissions affair has had on Audi sales in the US. In March Audi sales rose by 7.5% y/y to 18,392 units. Sales in Brazil continued to plummet as a result of the economic woes causes by low energy and commodity prices, with a 14.5% fall in March, translating to a 1.4% y/y decline in the first quarter. At the same time, BMW's sales in Europe rose by 9.5% y/y in the first quarter to 256,973 units (although these sales included Mini's numbers) while in the US the company published sales data which stated that combined group sales fell 10.8% y/y to 81,452 units.
Outlook and implications
It is clear that the Mercedes-Benz passenger car brand is currently stealing a march on its direct opposition. The bedrock of this very strong current sales performance is accelerated growth in China where it is starting to properly achieve the potential it has always had in the world's largest passenger car market. This has resulted in enhanced local production, including key models with a specific appeal to the Chinese market such as the GLA-Class and a complete overhaul of the firm's Chinese sales and distribution network. Both of these factors have helped drive sales, while Audi has arguably suffered more as a result of the clampdown on the rules for the purchasing of official government cars. Mercedes-Benz is also benefiting from an expanded and refreshed SUV and crossover portfolio, of which the GLA is a key member, while the new GLC has been an early sales success. Mercedes-Benz is also benefiting from being in something of a sweet spot in terms of its range model cycles, whereas BMW is currently suffering from precisely the opposite factor. Its key passenger car ranges are all comparatively long in the tooth, with the current F10 5-Series being launched in 2010, the F20 1-Series in 2011 and the F30 3-Series in 2012. The model renewal process begins next year with the new 5-Series, so this momentum will change between now and the end of the decade. For 2016, IHS Automotive forecasts that Mercedes-Benz with just fail to overtake BMW brand sales with a figure of 1.94 million units versus 1.95 million units, and Audi posting full-year brand sales of 1.80 million units. According to the latest forecast Mercedes will take top spot next year with 2.01 million units to BMW's 1.96 million units. However, BMW will return to the top spot in 2019 with sales of 2.07 million units compared to Mercedes' 2.06 million units.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.