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Customer LoginsPremium makes locked in tight race for leadership
New registrations for the first third of 2011 indicate that the most popular premium makes, BMW, Lexus and Mercedes-Benz, are locked in a tight race to claim registrations leadership. BMW is currently the registrations leader, but its margin over runner-up Lexus is a razor-thin 362 units when looking at total registrations. BMW also leads at the retail level, but its retail margin of 1,841 units is still tiny. Mercedes-Benz ranks number three using either total or retail registrations, and it retreats further if the Sprinter van is pulled out of the make totals.
Lexus may drop off as the year progresses due to lack of supply stemming from the March 11 earthquake and tsunamis in Japan. In fact, the May sales total for Lexus (based on Autodata sales) was 8,346 units behind BMW and 8,001 less than Mercedes-Benz. However, given that Toyota recently announced that its production schedules will return to normal earlier than originally planned, and given the fact that Lexus has been the U.S. premium leader for much of the past decade, it might be premature to discount the performance of Lexus for the remainder of the year.
If the two German makes, as a minimum, remain locked in such a tight registrations contest as the end of the year approaches, they most likely will highly incentivize their models with upside potential, putting downward pressure on retail transaction prices.
So, who will be the premium registrations leader in 2011? It depends. It depends if the measure used is total or retail registrations. It also depends whether or not Sprinter is included in the Mercedes-Benz total. Finally, it depends how quickly Lexus can bring its inventories back up to normal. One thing that is sure to happen - the winner will tout its success as soon as year-end data is available in early 2012.
Posted by Tom Libby, PolkInsight Advisor, Polk (06.29.2011)