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Customer LoginsSame-Day Analysis: EU CV registrations maintain momentum in January – ACEA
CV registrations maintained the momentum with which they ended 2015 in January, as both LCV and MHCV markets climbed.
IHS Automotive Perspective
- Significance: CV registrations have grown by 12.0% y/y, as both LCV and MHCV markets climbed.
- Implications: This followed a strong performance during 2015 as confidence continued to grow in the market place.
- Outlook: IHS Automotive anticipates that growth will continue during 2016, albeit at a weaker rate than last year.
Commercial vehicle (CV) registrations in the European Union (EU) have maintained the momentum in the marketplace during January 2016 with which they ended 2015. According to the latest data published by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), the number of light commercial vehicles (LCVs), medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) and medium and heavy buses and coaches registered during January increased by 12.0% year on year (y/y) to 159,712 units. However, registrations in European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) markets - Iceland, Norway and Switzerland - have also declined during the month by 4.2% y/y to 5,212 units.
As it stands now, the LCV market - which made up over 80% of CV sales in the EU - has now recorded its 29th month of growth in succession with an increase of 11.0% y/y seen to 130,040 units. Gains were recorded by most of the big markets in the region. Germany and France saw gains broadly in line with the increases seen by the category. Larger improvements were recorded by Spain and Italy, which continue to see a recovery from the low levels hit when their economies were at their worst. However, the United Kingdom witnessed a fall of 4.3% y/y, although this is as a result of the strength already seen during the past few years which led to record levels in 2015.
In the rest of the region, the majority of markets recorded some kind of improvements, with some of the largest being reserved for those that are benefiting most from some of the biggest economic rebounds after suffering the deepest falls at the height of the European economic crisis. These markets included Portugal, Ireland and those in Central Europe. However, even relatively stable markets such as Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark have put in strong positive contributions.
The smaller MHCV category had an even stronger month; the number of trucks with a GVW of more than 3.5 tonnes in the EU has grown 19.1% y/y to 26,762 units. This has been underpinned by a 18.4% y/y rise in the heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) category with a GVW of over 16 tonnes to 21,989 units. On a market basis, there has unsurprisingly been an overwhelming upward trend. Among the big influencers has been the UK market, where estimated MHCV registrations increased by 34.1% y/y as HCV registrations grew 33.0% y/y. In Spain, MHCV sales jumped 41.3% y/y, with HCV demand up by 40.0% y/y. However, the Italian market has struggled, and has fallen behind the stronger-performing Dutch and Polish markets.
Outlook and implications
The CV categories are continuing to record improvements after a strong 2015, when double-digit percentage gains were recorded by both. For many markets, this is being driven by better economic conditions in the Eurozone, which has helped confidence. In addition, as businesses held off from replacing vehicles as the height of the global downturn and then the more localised crisis, there is now a pent-up need for replacement which is being tapped.
For the MHCV category, numbers are as expected, according to principal analyst for IHS Automotive's Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle business, Christoph Domke, and backs the order numbers being recorded by truck-makers. However, after the very healthy developments last year and less replacement requirement in the market, the rate of growth is expected to decrease somewhat over the year. Nevertheless, we see annual sales growth for MHCVs of around 5% y/y for 2016.
IHS Automotive also expects registrations of LCVs under 6 tonnes to record further improvement during 2016, although much smaller than this year. Growth in the EU is anticipated to be up by over 2.0% y/y. We also expect gains to continue until at least the end of the decade, when sales will hit around 1.85 million units.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.