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Customer LoginsTesla to build all models with Level 5 autonomous technology; full self-driving capability to cost USD8,000
Tesla has announced that all of its electric vehicles will now be built with the hardware necessary to support full self-driving capability, including the upcoming Model 3. The Model S and Model X can be ordered with the technology today.
IHS Markit Perspective
- Significance: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced that all the automakers electric cars will be built with the hardware (cameras, sensors, and computers) to support Level 5 self-driving capability, beginning immediately and including the Model 3. Model S and X vehicles can be ordered with the equipment today. However, the autonomous driving functionality will be disabled until at least December 2016 to receive "enhanced autopilot". L5 functionality depends on continued testing and validation − and the regulatory environment.
- Implications: Tesla is rolling out full self-driving capability in much the same way that it did its first autopilot system: the hardware is standard, the features are not. Musk added that the release of L5 technology will be dependent on continued testing and evolution of its software and on the regulatory environment.
- Outlook: The move keeps Tesla at the forefront of the technology, in an environment where traditional automakers are rapidly expanding autonomous testing programmes and announcing expectations of commercial deployment within the next five years.
Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla held a conference call yesterday (19 October) to brief media on its latest product news, attended by IHS Automotive. From now on, all Tesla products will be built with a full complement of the automaker's second-generation driving assist technologies, which CEO Elon Musk referred to as "hardware 2". This suite of hardware will provide the foundation for Level 5 (L5) autonomous driving capability, Musk said. He added that it would take time to execute complete validation of the software supporting the hardware, and to ensure the regulatory environment supported L5 driving.
The system will use Tesla Vision, a "neural net" developed by the automaker, Musk said. The hardware includes eight cameras and 12 ultrasonic sensors, for 360-degree visibility around the car at up to 250 metres range. As with the current Autopilot system and its version 8.0 software update, the ultrasonic sensors provide supplemental visibility for the system, to allow detection of hard and soft objects at greater distances than currently. The system uses a new onboard computer with 40 times more computing power than the previous systems. During the conference call, Musk said that US technology company Nvidia is providing the computer chips, although the system is hardware agnostic. Musk said Tesla could have used AMD or Intel as suppliers, but believed Nvidia currently has the better hardware. Along with the additional sensors and better computing power, the GPS is more accurate and receives more updates, he said.
In terms of the features that the new hardware can support, Tesla will offer two levels. The Enhanced Autopilot option is similar to the automaker's current Autopilot system, although using four cameras and improved dynamic forward sonar and improved computing power. During the call, Musk said the Enhanced Autopilot system will be able to handle freeway driving, onramp to offramp and including freeway changes. Enhanced Autopilot comes with a USD5,000 price tag if selected when the vehicle order is placed, or is available as a USD6,000 upgrade after vehicle delivery. On the second option, the Tesla website says that checking the box for 'Full Self-Driving Capability' adds functionality for self-driving in city environments, and this costs USD3,000 at the time of ordering a vehicle or USD4,000 as an upgrade after delivery.
An important note on the ordering site is the caveat on timing: while any Tesla vehicle ordered after today will have all of the hardware, all 8 cameras, 12 sonar and computing capacity, the self-driving software will be rolled out later. On ordering of Enhanced Autopilot, the Tesla website says, "Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via an over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval." On the full self-driving option, the website says, "Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described … will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year." It is unclear at time of writing what the Tesla Network refers to, although IHS Automotive will provide details as soon as possible.
Tesla models already on the road with the first generation of Autopilot software and "hardware 1", as Musk called it, will not be upgradable − the Tesla CEO said that it is not possible to update the vehicles with the necessary hardware to have the same Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capabilities. However, Musk did say that even those cars will see continually improved performance, if not added functions, as the systems attain more fleet miles and the software continues to be updated.
On the testing process, Musk laid out the basic set of stages the software updates go through. First, there is internal testing on a closed track. Then, when the team thinks the improved software is ready, it is pushed to a set of "alpha users" (of which Musk is one). After that round of testing and updates, it goes to an early access programme of about 1,000 customers globally. Of those customers, Musk said that they "want to use the early software and are cognizant of early issues". If that round of testing provides strong results, the updated software is released in shadow mode across the fleet. In shadow mode, the vehicle takes no action, but the software tracks where it would (or would not) have intervened and whether that intervention could have prevented (or caused) an accident. Once Tesla has gathered enough for a statistically significant sample set that demonstrates it is "unequivocal" that the feature will improve safety, it can come out of shadow mode.
The first Enhanced Autopilot features will be rolled out by the end of December 2016. Without being clear about what functions would come online when or in what order, Musk said that the December release will provide the hardware 2 cars with "feature parity" with the hardware 1 cars. Following this, every two to three months, Tesla plans to release significant improvements. Musk's goal is to "feel pretty good" about a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York "without the need for a single touch, including the charger".
When asked about the impact of weather on the cameras and sensor systems, Musk said that there are heater elements around each camera, all are placed where they are less likely to be subject to dirt or ice build-up, and that, if one is blocked, the system can alert the driver to clean it. Three of the cameras are placed in front of the rear-view mirror, two cameras are high up in each of the B-pillars, there are left and right rear-facing cameras in side repeaters, and the rear camera is under the liftgate.
Outlook and implications
IHS Automotive sees this announcement, with Tesla's reputation for advanced technology, as having the potential to speed acceptance of the concept of self-driving cars among vehicle owners and intended purchasers. The announcement is Tesla's response to the myriad of announcements over the past several months from other automakers on their progress towards and strategy on commercialisation of autonomous vehicle technology. Tesla is also the first to price the autonomous features for consumers − while other automakers have promised approximate go-to-market dates, the pricing has not yet been addressed.
The more that consumers see autonomous technology in action, the more opportunity they will have to warm to the idea of that cars can do more than just be passively driven. However, in terms of penetration of driver-assist and self-driving technology, Tesla is enough of an outlier that a fully autonomous fleet from the EV maker would not represent a significant share of the global automotive market. In terms of consumer touchpoints, automatic emergency braking will reach more consumers rapidly, particularly as it is expected to be required by 2022.
The pricing question is also interesting. Owners will be able to order the autonomous features today, without Tesla having given a full commitment on when they will be able to use them, at a cost of USD8,000 for L5 capability. Alternatively, customers will be able to order a Tesla car without the features, and pay a USD2,000 price for adding the system when it is truly available. Tesla owners are largely early adopters of technology, compared with customers of mainstream brands. As a result, little can be inferred on mainstream demand for the system from the orders for Tesla's system prior to its actual availability. While it has not been confirmed, the system is expected to carry the same price in a Model 3 as in the other Tesla models. Presumably, the Model 3 is intended to be more affordable and reach buyers who cannot afford the Model S or the Model X. Adding full self-driving technology would increase the Model 3's price from the expected USD35,000 to USD42,000, before tax incentives or any other options. As Model 3 buyers may prove to have higher-than-average household incomes and continue to skew towards tech-friendly and early adopters, the feature might see a healthy take rate despite the cost.
The move does keep Tesla at the forefront of autonomous technology, in an environment where traditional automakers are rapidly expanding autonomous testing programmes and announcing expectations of commercial deployment within the next five years. Once the software is fully validated and regulatory hurdles are overcome, Tesla can make the leap to a largely L5-capable fleet − if customers are willing to pay for the technology. Tesla's approach remains consistent, in that the hardware is standard but the software-driven functionality comes at a cost. Although Musk said he did not think most people expected this announcement or that it would happen this fast, the company has been extremely aggressive on this front and it was not a shocking development.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.