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Customer LoginsVehicle density in emerging markets
Vehicle density is a key indicator to show the maturity of an automotive market. In the glory days of the U.S. auto market (back in 2001), the U.S. had 453 vehicles per 1,000 people, but today the U.S. market is at 419 and is forecasted to be around 414 by 2015. The growth has shifted to the emerging markets and the numbers are very different.
Russia leads the emerging BRIC countries with 235 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2010 and is forecasted for 293 vehicles per 1,000 people by 2015. Russia's population however is forecasted to decline by 2% between 2010 and 2015, with a 2015 population of 138 million people and dropping.
Comparing Russia to the small vehicle density of China and India, the numbers get a little skewed. China has a relatively low vehicle density with 27 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2010, but the population in China is over 1.3 billion people. And India has a similarly low vehicle density to China, but with a population of almost 1.2 billion people. It would be quite a crowded place to live if the vehicle density rose to the U.S high of 453 vehicles. If there were 453 vehicles per 1000 people, that would equate to a light vehicle forecast of approximately 53 million vehicles -- and that's just India. For a country roughly a third the size of the United States, I don't think that many vehicles could fit within it.
What do you think? In 50 years when the vehicle market is mature in India, what will the vehicle density be? And while you have your crystal ball out, what will India's automotive forecast be?
Posted by Margaret Zewatsky, Product Strategist, Polk (04.29.2011)