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Customer LoginsMidsize vans climb back
While crossovers, SUVs and pickups continue to lead the industry in registration and share gains, mostly at the expense of sedans, recently at least one other vehicle category has quietly been experiencing a revival. Midsize vans*, sometimes called minivans, have enjoyed a 28% registration increase based on May CYTD registration volumes versus a year ago, far greater than the industry's 3% increase over the same time period. Only two other segments among 31 IHS Automotive categories have out-performed midsize vans over this time period, including the red-hot compact crossover segment and full-size half-ton vans. Concurrently, the midsize van segment's share of industry has risen to a four-year high of 3.5% through May 2016 (see chart below).
These data are noteworthy on their own, but they gain greater significance when one considers that, not that long ago, this segment had been virtually written off, and for some legitimate reasons. The last midsize van registrations from Ford and GM occurred in 2009 and 2010, respectively; FCA is in the process of reducing its van portfolio to one product, and crossovers, the theory goes, provide all the functionality of vans (and then some) without the stigma sometimes associated with them.
The midsize van's resurgence is due to double digit five year increases by every model, including a 32% jump by Caravan, the 2016 segment leader through May. Kia Sedona and Nissan Quest volumes have almost doubled over the past five years, and the recent introductions of the Metris and Pacifica have also contributed to the segment's growth, but the segment's volume has been dominated by the four major players, Sienna, Odyssey, Caravan and Town & Country (see below).
Loyalty patterns also are shifting in favor of midsize vans. Households with vans in the garage now are trading for another one at a greater rate than five years ago, according to IHS Automotive loyalty data, with segment loyalty (propensity to acquire another vehicle from the same segment) up 12.2 percentage points over the past five years to 34.8% (see below) . While this metric is still below industry-wide segment loyalty, the van segment's five year increase in this metric is more than twice the industry's rise.
Lastly, midsize vans are conquesting owners of vehicles in other segments at an increasing rate as well. The midsize van segment's conquest/defection ratio with the industry (total conquests coming into the midsize van segment/total defections leaving the segment) has climbed .28 percentage point in the past five years to .81. Three of the segments with the greatest increases in movement to midsize vans are sub-compact, compact and midsize sedans, suggesting these categories are vulnerable to vans as well as crossovers.
*Note: All segments mentioned in this blog are non-luxury.
Tom Libby is Manager, Loyalty Solutions and Industry Analysis, IHS Automotive
Posted July 25, 2016