October 2024 Light Vehicle Production Forecast

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Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to give you the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.

Here's a close look at global production data by region and our updated October production forecast.

As we enter the fourth quarter of 2024, slower growth in significant regions and uncertainties surrounding battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption continue to challenge the production outlook. This month's forecast notably revises Europe downward due to reduced demand and mandated fleet emissions requirements, while Greater China sees a modest improvement thanks to government stimulus.

Europe: The European light vehicle production outlook was reduced by 107,000 units for 2024 and 292,000 units for 2025, driven by weakening demand in Central and Western Europe. An EU reduction mandate of 15% for fleet emissions in 2025 will pressure OEMs to manage supply to the market effectively. In contrast, Eastern Europe sees an increase of 35,000 units for 2025, supported by Russian demand.

Greater China: In Greater China, our light vehicle production outlook was increased by 73,000 units for 2024 but decreased by 42,000 units for 2025. NEVs are the primary growth driver, continuing their strong momentum with 1.1 million retail units sold in September. A fundamental consumption recovery is not expected this year, even as the scrapping policy provides modest support.

Japan/Korea: The Japan light vehicle production outlook was upgraded by 22,000 units for 2025 and 128,000 units for 2026, with a key driver being a change in sourcing for the Nissan Leaf North America, from the UK to Japan. South Korea's production outlook was reduced by 9,000 units for 2024 and 16,000 units for 2025, reflecting slower sales in Europe.

North America: The North American light vehicle production outlook was decreased by 12,000 units for 2024 and 113,000 units for 2025, with the revisions for next year driven by a variety of vehicle program delays. Inventory management efforts, particularly for the Detroit 3, continue to influence the near-term production outlook for the region.

South America: South America's light vehicle production outlook was increased by 36,000 units for 2024 and 35,000 units for 2025, driven by stronger sales in Brazil and generally improved demand expectations for Argentina.

South Asia: The South Asia light vehicle production outlook was increased by 25,000 units for 2024 but reduced by 73,000 units for 2025. The ASEAN market shows stronger recent production activity, while India's production outlook has been meaningfully revised down for 2025 and beyond, due to economic challenges and high inventory levels.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.